Gibson Nyikadzino
When Zimbabwe’s CEO Emmerson Mnangagwa recently told Catholic bishops that “they must come out and form political parties. As ZANU-PF, we are ready for 2023 elections” it is clear he knows he will win. If he was not sure about his 2023 victory, he would not have mentioned the party’s readiness on the next general elections. The best in this game know when the elections are won. They are won well before the vote is cast, and President Mnangagwa knows so. Voting in 2023 will just be fulfillment of a constitutional obligation.
The modern environment is such a hostile one and dictatorships are becoming endangered species. However, Mnangagwa’s confidence to win has been firmed by signs of sickening frailty in the opposition and that gives margins of hope to ZANU-PF. On the other hand, the opposition’s verve, zeal and enthusiasm displayed during elections are vanishing in the mists of history.
Opposition bodies no longer or rarely talk of biometric voting, diaspora votes, selection of election observer missions, in general, they have muted on electoral reforms. An attitude of a ‘democratic confrontation’ by the opposition has become an exhausted argument. Those challenging Mnangagwa through confrontation are crushed by the day, when he is benevolent, he charms them. Since 2018, when foreign leaders and continental bodies enquired about reported human rights abuses, Mnangagwa has raised the flag of interference. This is how he is making strides to the 2023 finishing line. The opposition has lost endurance.
Before Zimbabwe’s parliament halted business, the main opposition disengaged from the legislature because of legal squabbles. In general, Zimbabwe’s opposition parties become active only during an election, and disappear when the election is over.
There are also findings that most of the opposition parties in Africa are established around the personalities of individuals (Morgan Tsvangirai, Nelson Chamisa, Julius Malema, Hellen Zille, Robert Kagulyani). In most cases these parties lack internal democracy, suffer from inter-party and intra-party conflicts, have severe shortage of finance, and lack of a strong base and experience. Among their deficiencies is their weakness of bad organisation and a poor connection with the popular constituencies. All these are avenues exploited by the governing parties on the continent who are aided by the preponderance of the incumbent.
In their book, How To Rig An Election, Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas try to expose the way that elections are rigged around the world so that people learn how to better defend democracy.
Technology use to the incumbent’s advantage, reform pretence, managing media, use of violence and starting when others are absent minded and deaf to developments.
The issue of technology use during the voting process is critical because many say it is harder to manipulate. Electronic voting gets rid of ghost voters, in many instances, though it can be tempered. A week before the 2018 elections, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) chairperson claimed that hackers broke into the commission’s database and stole crucial information. Dictators know when to crash a system, this they do to revert to the manual system.
Since 2017, after Robert Mugabe’s resignation, Mnangagwa has been pretending to be a reformer. As part of this strategy, he has been holding interviews with international media and has mentioned his aspiration to have Zimbabwe be like Paul Kagame’s Rwanda. Everyone likes a reformer. Mnangagwa has used the charming, tried and tested phrase ‘Open for Business’, created a Political Actors Dialogue (POLAD) platform, has been meeting the Matabeleland Collective to hear concerns from Gukurahundi victims and he says he is “a listening President who is as soft as wool.”
Democracies thrive on plural voices, alternative views and ideas. Zimbabwe’s public/state broadcaster is constitutionally mandated to be “impartial” and “afford a fair opportunity for the presentation of divergent views and dissenting opinions” in Section 61(4)(b) and (c) of the constitution. Mnangagwa’s administration maintains a tight control on media. The invitation of the Nick Mangwana from Britain as the Information Permanent Secretary was not enough to provide reform the public/state broadcaster, despite his experiences on the appropriateness of plural voices in a democracy.
The strategy and tactic that is being used to suppress opposition access to media is subsidizing the media, especially the public press, with some unnecessary government adverts and target them with trumped-up charges. The alternative has been the use of digital media platforms. However, the opposition in Zimbabwe has no finances, it is broke. The ZANU-PF government is aware that mainly Twitter (and other platforms) will expose them if left unchecked. The government has bought friends that have flood social media with “positive messages.” The good story that has won ZANU-PF the social media argument is that the opposition is funded by Britain, the country’s former colonial power.
Many citizens hailed Mnangagwa as a proponent for democratic change when he invited the European Union and the USA to observe the 2018 elections. Mnangagwa was not worried with the African Union (AU) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) missions because they are “friends.” After the elections, a report by the EU noted that some people in opposition strongholds were frustrated and not allowed to register to vote. The invitation that came without electoral and security sector reforms did not level the electoral field.
While many want the opposition to come into power in Zimbabwe, not everyone wants it to win the election because of how disconnected it has been, how it appears to abandon the “struggle” and lack of ideological clarity.
The rigging of the elections is being done now. Technology, bureaucratic delays, a frail and poor opposition, media control and the reform message are all mechanisms at ZANU-PF’s disposal win or rig the next election.
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